Chad's cabinet on Thursday approved a draft 2027 budget that would raise spending 19% to CFA3,002 billion, about €4.6 billion, and pay for it mainly with a projected 52% rise in oil revenue and larger foreign grants, according to the government's account of the meeting. It is a draft: parliament is due to vote on it at the end of December, APA reported. The figures are projections, not money received.
What the plan spends on
Spending would rise by about CFA470 billion. The largest block is investment, CFA1,457 billion, up 24%; CFA663 billion of it is financed from abroad, by lenders and donors. Health is a stated priority: nearly CFA60 billion more, 25% more in transfers to university hospitals and funding for 90 health districts and 2,514 health centres. It also plans to recruit 6,265 people, more than 6,170 of them social-sector staff in the provinces. The payroll would grow 15% to CFA796 billion, and interest on debt to CFA134 billion.
Where the money is meant to come from
Resources are projected at CFA3,065 billion, up 35%. Oil would bring CFA1,184 billion, which the government attributes to higher oil prices and a stronger dollar. Grants would reach CFA573 billion, up 43%. The government projects non-oil revenue of CFA1,308 billion, up 20%, crediting digital tax platforms intended to improve VAT collection. By a calculation from those figures, oil and grants together would supply about 73% of the projected rise in resources. The government describes a CFA63 billion surplus, but only before debt repayment and financing, so it is not spare cash. The cabinet account does not give the oil price, dollar rate or export volume behind the oil figure.
Why the source of the money matters
The International Monetary Fund has described how Chad's dependence on oil shapes what gets funded. In a 2025 report on Chad's lending programme, IMF staff said oil accounts for about half of total revenue and has made fiscal policy pro-cyclical, with "boom-bust cycles in investment and large cuts in wages". The report also shows how a cash squeeze can play out: in the first quarter of 2025, spending on wages and on goods and services met projections, while transfers and domestically financed investment fell short, partly because of liquidity constraints.
The programme proposed a safeguard: Chad would submit a supplementary budget adjusting expenditure when lower oil prices reduced budgeted oil revenue by 30% or more, starting with the 2026 budget law. The sources reviewed do not say whether that rule applies to the 2027 draft.
Oil prices have moved sharply. When the programme was designed, the IMF's baseline assumed Brent crude at roughly $60 to $70 a barrel, Tchadinfos reported; Brent crossed $100 on 9 September amid Middle East tension and disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. That is dated context, not the price the 2027 budget assumes. A higher price helps Chad only if it lasts, Tchadinfos noted, and depends on the volumes Chad exports, the discount on its crude and the dollar.
The upside is real: stronger receipts could pay for the clinics, water and roads the plan targets. The risk runs the other way. If oil or grants fall short, a budget that promises recruitment and hospital funding must decide what to hold back, and the IMF's account of early 2025 shows investment and transfers lagging first.
President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno told ministers to begin executing the budget from the start of the year and to follow public-procurement rules, and to take measures against repeated clashes between communities, the cabinet statement said.