About 30% of West Africa’s cropland experienced severe heat and low rainfall together during July–September 2026, compared with approximately 1% during the strong El Niño episodes of 2015 and 2023, according to WFP’s October seasonal outlook, released on 3 November. The combination increases crops’ water requirements while reducing the moisture available to them.
The affected areas include central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, parts of western and eastern Niger, and Chad’s Sahelian belt and southwest. Conditions remain more favourable across much of the wetter southern agricultural zone. Rainfall improved in western areas late in the season, but WFP warns of possible below-average yields in the hardest-hit locations, alongside reduced pasture and water for livestock.
Mali’s harvests reveal sharp local differences
In Bankass, agricultural-sector head Mahamadou Boré says a 17–18-day interruption in rainfall coincided with important stages of crop development and reduced yields. Farmers are harvesting millet, sorghum, fonio and groundnuts, with initial results reportedly below the previous season’s.
Harvesting is much further advanced in Sikasso. Regional agricultural-chamber vice-president Sibiri Sanogo estimates that farmers have collected about 90% of maize, 80% of rice and 70% of cotton. Millet and sorghum harvesting finished in Douentza during October. In the Amadia plain near Timbuktu, rice harvesting is still awaited; growers describe expensive diesel and fertiliser, together with damaged irrigation channels, as constraints on production.
The household consequences will extend beyond the harvest. FEWS NET’s October assessment projects peak needs in Chad’s pastoral areas between March and June 2027, earlier than the April–July peak expected in pastoral Mali and Niger. Agricultural communities face their greatest pressure later: June–August in Chad and Burkina Faso, and June–September in Mali and Niger. Conflict remains the principal driver of food insecurity in Mali and Niger, with production losses and reduced farm income adding to it.